By the time you read this, the presidential caucus in Iowa _ scheduled for Monday, Jan. 24 _ will be history. The aspirations of some of the presidential candidates could also be history, although
the first actual primary, in New Hampshire on Feb. 1, will probably give us a
better idea of who’s doing well and who should find another line of work.
After New Hampshire comes a steady string of primaries and
caucuses. Washington has its primary on Tuesday, Feb. 29, along with Virginia.
Then comes “Super Tuesday I,” on March 7, with ten states _ California,
Connecticut, Georgia, Maine, Massachusetts, Missouri, New York, Ohio, Rhode
Island, and Vermont _ holding their primaries, plus caucuses in American
Samoa, Hawaii, Minnesota and North Dakota. A second “Super Tuesday” follows
a week later, with the Florida, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas
primaries.
And so it will go, as each state takes its turn in voting cycle, leading to
the two major parties’ national conventions. The Republicans will meet first,
in Philadelphia, from July 31 to Aug. 3, while the Democrats will hold forth
in Los Angeles from Aug. 14 to 17.
So far the races have been interesting on both sides. Not since 1992
have we seen such a number of candidates, and not since 1980 have we seen such
a battle within the incumbent party.
The race between heir apparent Al Gore and contender Bill Bradley
has certainly been colorful, even as the pundits steadfastly maintain that Gore
is the man who will prevail in Los Angeles this August. That may yet
happen, what with Bradley’s health problems.
Obviously, there is no love lost by either side. Gore seems to have taken
a page from his boss’s 1992 and 1996 play books, i.e., make a lot of
promises, smile a lot, press the flesh and tell jokes. Kind of like a friendly big brother
that we can all “look up to.” Never mind that nobody really looks up to the
soon-to-be-retired President Clinton, except maybe Socks and Buddy.
Bradley says he’s running a more substantive campaign and also says
he’s in it for the long run, no matter what happens in the first few primaries.
He’s warned his people not to expect too much in the early going, particularly in
the face of polls that indicate Gore is pulling ahead.
However, Bradley likes to point out that New Hampshire voters have
provided plenty of surprises in the past, such as Ted Kennedy’s remarkable
31 percent of the vote in 1980 against incumbent president Jimmy Carter.
Looking back a bit further, Eugene McCarthy’s strong finish in New Hampshire
in 1968 effectively drove President Lyndon B. Johnson from the campaign,
while opening the way for Bobby Kennedy’s candidacy.
On the Republican side, most analysts feel George W. Bush has it
wrapped up and compare Senator John McCain to Don Quixote; but as always,
anything can happen.
This race is also marked by sharpness and regular attacks of the “that’s
not what I said” variety. McCain is known for going against the grain and
taking stands on subjects such as election financing that make Republican party
leadership cringe. Therefore, many of the attacks on McCain are coming
from within his own party.
There have been whispered rumors questioning McCain’s temperament
and emotional fitness for the presidency. He’s made light of the attacks but
they continue, with some saying he is unfit for the office of president because of
his 6-plus year incarceration at the Hanoi Hilton.
It’s supremely ironic that elements of the same party that have attacked
Bill Clinton for being a draft dodger are now out to destroy the reputation of a
man who is a certified war hero.
Bush has even compared McCain’s tax-cut proposal to being akin to
“what I would expect from Vice President Gore or Senator Bradley.”
Interestingly enough, Bush’s proposal for tax cuts comes in at $443 million, while
McCain is pushing for $273 million, targeted at low- and middle-income
Americans while retaining a reserve for Medicare and Social Security. Apparently
the difference is in the details.
What we’re seeing here is a real old-fashioned horse race, and there’s
no way of telling how it’s going to turn out. Leaders can fall out of favor at
any time while classic dark horses _ Nixon in 1968, Carter in 1976 and Clinton
in 1992 _ can rise to the top.
Perhaps the British have the better idea on how to run national
leadership campaigns. They have a set period that runs weeks, not months, with
restrictions on expenditures and television advertising. Set up the election, run a
brief campaign, and get it over with.
However, this is America, and for the next five months or so _
through June, when Alabama, Montana, New Jersey and New Mexico hold their
primaries _ we’ll be treated to non-stop ads and regular visits by candidates
through the West, leading up to the triumphant nominating process in August.
And then it starts all over again.
Fun, isn’t it?
Mark Morgan, Editor
