Brace yourselves! If we have a really cold winter during the next

few years, we’ll run out of “juice” to

stay warm.

According to a recent report from the Northwest Power Planning

Council, there’s a 1-in-4 chance our region won’t have enough electricity to

meet peak demands during the next four winters _ and the picture gets

even worse in subsequent years.

The report goes on to say that, to reduce that risk to 1-in-20

by 2004, we need to add more than 3,000 megawatts of electrical

power (enough to power three Seattles) by building new

generating plants and by launching a new round of energy conservation.

But it may already be too late. The council report says that even if we

ordered gas turbine generators today, the fastest capacity to bring on line,

they would not be ready in time to avert an energy crisis.

There’s another problem. In its analysis, the council counted on

having two major sources of energy that are currently targeted for

destruction by environmental activists _ the 4,000

megawatts of peak power generated by the lower Snake River dams _

and the power from many smaller existing hydro projects coming up for

re-licensing by the federal government.

Some dam removal advocates say: “Just buy the electricity from

California, British Columbia or some other part of the country. Pay the going

rate and quit worrying!” But those regions also are experiencing growth and

have their own troubles building generating plants.

The council’s report is especially alarming when you consider that

for the last 50 years, the economies of Washington, Oregon, Idaho and

Montana have been fueled by cheap and plentiful electrical power. Our

economies still depend on it today.

We all know that aluminum plants consume large amounts of power,

but so do high-tech manufacturers who make things like silicon wafers.

We spend a lot of time and money recruiting high-tech companies to the

Northwest, but will we have the power to keep them here?

As our elected officials ponder what to do about our Northwest

dams, they need to take the blinders off and look beyond restoration of

wild salmon runs “at any cost.” They

must look at the impact on power production, transportation, agriculture,

citizens and the very businesses which fuel the economy and create jobs

for our region’s families.

Don Brunell is president of the Association of Washington

Business, Washington state’s chamber of commerce. Visit AWB on the Web

at www.awb.org.